week 4 recap(let)

1020-october04-2006
so... last weekend ended up being pretty fun, huh? the two 'premier' games ended up being snoozers, but there were a few early games that were close and very exciting. maybe i'm just still soaking in that colts-jets game. what a freakin' excellent finish.

ok, playoff teams!

nfc
let's do the nfc first, for once.
panthers - important win. oh, and no way they are the #1 seed in the nfc. in case, you know, you still thought i thought that. i still think they have what it takes to win the nfc south, though.
seattle - brutalized. wow. i'm not sure many could have seen that coming. i'm wondering how much of a difference shaun alexander would have made in this game. the bears could look pass and react to the run, which is something teams can't do against a premier running back. knock seattle down to #2... for now.
philadelphia - this team really needs a much greater sense of urgency. no way the packers should keep up with them for 2 quarters in philly.
bears - the bears are pretty f'n terrifying - that defense is still very, very good and grossman... well, he's really stunning, which is something i never expected to say about a florida quarterback. almost certainly my new #1 in the nfc... but probably everyone's #1 after that dominating performance.
giants - off!
vikings - i hate you, vikings. how do you play the bears tough and then lose to the bills? i hope they don't make the playoffs. tmq:
We're All Professionals Here: Minnesota launched a 9-yard punt. Buffalo lost yardage on its possession, then replied with a 22-yard punt.
yeah, fuck you, vikings.

other teams of note:
the falcons will not make the playoffs. from tmq:
Atlanta leads the league in rushing, averaging a phenomenal 234 yards per game. Can this be sustained? New Orleans shut down the Falcons' running game by putting eight men on the line and daring Michael-Mike Vick to throw. An eight-man front also nullifies the modified sprint-option Atlanta has been using, because in that scheme the defensive end does not need to decide between the fullback and the quarterback, the defensive end always takes the fullback. Inexplicably, Arizona mostly played a passing defense against the accuracy-challenged Vick, allowing the Falcons to run the ball. Expect Atlanta to see more eight-man fronts as the season progresses.
8 man fronts will kill the falcons. nfl, you're on notice. the saints are looking more real each week. the cowboys-eagles game this weekend is going to be awesome and very telling for both teams. st. louis is sneakily winning games, and if they hadn't been upset by the 49ers they'd be undefeated with green bay this weekend before seattle next weekend. i have my eye on you, st. louis. eh, for all the wide-openness in the nfc, the afc is more interesting, i think.

afc
colts - well, they needed a road gut check early in the season, and the jets delivered it. TWO clutch drives due to shoddy kick coverage? i can't help but be impressed. the colts are somehow without bob sanders and without stokley and without any kind of kicking game the best team in the nfl. tenuously.
patriots - i don't have much to say about the pats. these are the few things i have to say: lock to win the division, maybe the third or fourth best team in the afc right now (a ranking that will only rise this year if play well), and eventually a team is going to come along with a very good run defense that will cause the pats problems. of course, that might not happen until the playoffs or the super bowl. :cough:
bengals - no run defense and that offense can't hold up against a strong defense? seattle and cincy - proof that defense > offense in the 2006 nfl. also they should stop fumbling.
broncos - um, did they play? oh, phew, they didn't.
steelers - also off! 3 of my playoff teams, off in one week. then again, the steelers don't look like a playoff team at all.
san diego - tough loss to a good team on the road. i didn't get to see any of this game, so i can't pretend to know anything about what happened. again, from tmq:
Field Goals Matter: Case Study No. 2: San Diego lost 16-13 on a Baltimore touchdown with 34 seconds remaining. Earlier the Bolts honked two field goal attempts, one that was a failed kick and one when the holder bobbled the snap. Think field goals are wimpy plays? Had San Diego connected on the two kicks, it would have walked off the field whistlin'.
well, there i go, i guess.

other teams of notes:
ravens > steelers. bengals > ravens. let it be known.
THE BROWNS WON
can someone please, please explain to me what the fuck happened to the jacksonville defense? are the redskins really that good offensively? phil, this might be in your wheelhouse. eh, i'll chalk it up to a one-off for now, but giving up 36 points to the redskins is not how a team makes the playoffs, jacksonville.

best games next weekend-
cowboys-eagles for all the obvious reasons
steelers at chargers, so we can learn a bit more about both those teams
redskins at giants, big big weekend in the nfc east
jets at jacksonville to see both how the jets react to last weekend's very promising effort and to see if jacksonville's defense will be back in form.

thanks for indulging me.

comments

re: redskins < everyone

from: phil (2006-10-04 10:50:49)

yeah, the redskins are not good at all. their offense had one of those great days that teams can have on occassion, but its not indicative of the team actually being good. look at the pats game against the bengals. the pats aren't that good. just chalk it up to that.

the more interesting thing is how bad the redskins defense was. this team is supposed to be built around a bigtime defense and they gave up a ton of big plays. they were really lucky that jacksonville never really made a concerted effort to run the ball down the 'skins throats, because if they had i think jacksonville would've dominated TOP and won the game.

also, you really dislike joe gibbs more and more everytime i see him. he looks like gollum.

re: comment

from: niv (2006-10-04 13:18:35)

i dislike joe gibbs?

re: comment

from: jon (2006-10-04 16:57:45)

i dont know if the 49ers win over the rams was an upset. the rams were one of the only teams that they could beat last year! Of course, this person thinks it was an upset: http://gryphonastrology.wordpress.com/2006/09/12/astrology-of-current-affairs-nfl-football-49ers-v-rams/

re: comment

from: thad (2006-10-04 20:37:52)

i don't think the colts are nearly as good as their record. they probably lose to jacksonville if leftwich didn't play with his hands wrapped around his neck (jax dominated that game), they let this frisky jets team hang around way too long (ne went up 24-0 on the jets at least) and obviously that game against the giants was in doubt until the very end, and the giants defense has shown itself to be _terrible_.

obviously i'm super excited for the pats-colts game in a few weeks. i don't think the pats are generally 25 points better than the bengals of course, but that was mighty impressive especially on the road. and the colts have a worse running game than the bengals and they have the 3rd-worst rushing defense in the league. the pats defense has quietly allowed the 7th-least points in the league, and if it weren't for some big plays would be better even than that. for those big plays, you've got the bills fumble return td, the two ridiculous jets td plays (cotchery and coles), and the two long javon walker plays. what i'm saying is they haven't really allowed many sustained drives at all.

i agree that the ravens aren't nearly as good as their record too. ok, so they dominate tampa and oakland, big deal. cleveland and san diego basically handed them those games, cleveland with the frye pick and the chargers with their ridiculously conservative playcalling which i was bitching about three weeks ago. mcnair can't continue to look fucking awful and still have a chance to lead a final comeback against better/more balanced teams. at this point it'll be hard for them to miss the playoffs but i think 10-6 is a hell of a lot more likely than something like 13-3.

i still don't know what i think of the broncos, but based off how they looked against the pats they just might be one of the top 2-3 teams in the afc.

bears are nasty. i still think the seahawks will be fine, but hasselbeck is making a lot of bad decisions in several games back-to-back now. the seahawks have to get the #1 seed if they want to beat the bears in the playoffs i think. those two easily have the inside track for the top 2 seeds anyways.

 

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