when cavs have the ball
ok, so lebron james is awesome. there is no way bowen can hope to contain him if he decides he wants to score. but that's what, 30 points? 40 points maybe? in the utah series, deron williams and carlos boozer both got theirs, but the spurs defense hassled the supporting cast into dismal shooting from beyond the arc, and the jazz went down fairly quietly. lebron is superior to anyone on the jazz team, but if you look at the phoenix series, you see that the spurs defense was capable at bothering those three point shooters enough while still defending the rim. the key, of course, is to make shots in the 15-17 foot range. drew gooden is capable of doing this, and ilgauskas can do this as well, but james is inconsistent, and hughes is far worse at this than he should be. so, the cavs probably won't take what is given to them, but instead will try to attack the rim and kick out for threes.
lebron is better at attacking the rim than anyone the spurs have seen so far. combine this with varejao and (especially) ilgauskas's ability to attack the offensive boards, and the cavs should be somewhat successful in attacking the rim.
however, should anyone be convinced that daniel gibson is going to be, over the stretch of this series, as impressive as he was in game 6 against the pistons? will donyell marshall get his stroke back? will sasha realize that the season wasn't over two months ago? these questions are of the utmost importance, as they decide if the cavs will make this a series or if they won't. if the spurs are allowed to implode towards the basket frequently and are not made to pay, this series won't be remembered in 5 years.
when spurs have the ball
i think phoenix set the best model on how to defend the spurs. double-team duncan and rotate to cover three-point shooters. this is the model. use it and make tony parker beat you with mid-range jumpers. if this model isn't followed, the lane becomes more open for players like parker and ginobili and even oberto to operate, which leads quickly to layups and three pointers. the spurs are like clockwork - they execute well, and they are capable of scoring off of almost anything the defense gives them, despite running one of the more predictable offenses in the league.
in hughes and especially(!) lebron, the cavs have optimal players to double-team duncan. lebron could especially cause problems due to his size. if the cavs execute a defense like this well, they could truly make the spurs work for every possession, and this series will go 7 games if they make their threes.
however, if they do not defend duncan aggressively, the house of cards falls apart quickly. duncan will get his, and if they do double-team but not fast enough, the various players on the spurs that quick-cut will shred the cavs defense. okur did an excellent job one on one against duncan at various points of the conference finals, but the spurs were still able to score at will. i do think the cavs defensive schemes are better than utah's, but i am unconvinced that duncan in particular and the spurs in general will be bothered by the cavs players as much as they were bothered against phoenix and utah.
a note
my analysis focused on the cavs, but that is because all the question marks are with the cavs. the spurs are a consistent, well-oiled machine. if they shoot well, they will win. if they don't shoot well, they still might win.
the cavs are inconsistent from night to night, especially on the offensive end. this series depends greatly on what happens when the cavs have the ball, as that is where the most variance lies.
game by game prediction
spurs win game 1 in a blow out
game 2 is a spurs win, but much closer
cavs eke out a game 3 win
spurs win a physical game 4
cavs win a game 5 in which the spurs shoot terribly
spurs win game 6 at home and take home the championship
yes, a lot of detail in that prediction, but I PREDICTED A SPURS-CAVS FINAL WHEN THIS ALL STARTED so let's see how nostradamus-y i am.
spurs-cavs: ok... what now?
1305-june07-2007
comments
re: eyes... bleeding...
from: geoff (2007-06-07 19:24:56)
8+7 might be the most math ive ever had to do to post a comment
but it was worth it
re: i used to wish people commented more
from: niv (2007-06-08 21:11:24)
i don't know if i wish that anymore
chad, what you wrote was fairly unreadable. but i did skim through to find this:
i know two games is a small sample size and i know the spurs post february are a different team than the spurs pre-february, but i think that the two cavs wins this year were indicative of one thing: mike brown knows the spurs better than the spurs know the spurs.and i think you should never write anything ever again.
re: maybe you should read the whole thing...
from: chad (2007-06-09 10:54:51)
instead of picking out one sentence and pulling it out of context. all i suggested from that comment was that brown needs to game plan well enough to keep his team in the game long enough for lebron to try to win it. in game 1 i am not sure he did that (i know the cavs didn't execute well enough, but couldn't really tell if it was bad game planning or just bad execution...i would guess that its both), but i think that has to be his goal for the next 3-6 games.
and for what its worth, the cavs didn't do any of the 8 things i listed (maybe gibson+sasha=1.5 players, actually, but hughes was so bad...). i still maintain that accomplishing those 8 things (or at least 6 of them, i guess) is the cavs only real hope of winning games.
but i do appreciate that after we discussed the fact that i was going to offer a "how the cavs can win" analysis following yours, you didn't take the time to read it, but instead criticized one sentence that you didn't like.
re: as promised, my reply
alright, niv, you have had your say, now for a rebuttal.
first of all, let me say that i am actually in agreement with your prediction of spurs in 6. as you know, i even agree with you on who will win each game. that said, as a cavs fan, the purpose of my rebuttal is to construct what i believe to be a realistic scenario in which the cavs can win.
there are some obvious although improbable scenarios in which the cavs win (marshall finds his shot, sasha avgs 20 a game, gibson plays like he did in game 6 (and 4 and some of 5 for that matter), Z and gooden are automatic from 15-17, and that alll happens for every game), but i am trying to focus on realistic things here.
so, we'll start with the spurs on offense.
this is obviously where the cavs have to focus. if they can keep the games in the 80's, they basically improve their odds of winning just by keeping themselves within striking distance late, when anything can happen. so how do you do that?
1) slow down tony parker. not stop him, mind you, because the cavs can't do that, but slow him down. and you do that by combining a couple of looks on him. the primary hope for the cavs in this regard is that boobie gibson proves quick enough to stay with parker (mostly because this keeps gibson's offense on the floor). if that isnt the case (or isnt the case often enough), snow has to come in and basically be too physical for parker, which he is capable of doing. mix this in with some of hughes (who can show enough combination of size, length and quickness to harass parker) and maybe even some zone (although bowen, horry and barry become big time issues here) and this can keep parker off balance. the one other thing to keep in mind is that the biggest advantage the cavs have shown against slashing players is the ability of the bigs to slide in and take a charge. if the cavs can pick up some cheap fouls on parker and then use their bigger guards (he'll have to cover hughes, sasha, snow, etc. when gibson isnt out there) to post him up, there is potential to get parker in foul trouble. none of those plans is likely to result in parker being the non-factor that billups was, but if all of it combined can put him just slightly off his game, it cracks the window a bit more for an upset.
2) keep tim duncan off balance. in the two games against cleveland this year, duncan was a combined 14-29 from the field and 15-27 from the line. solid, numbers, but certainly not great, and, really, about all you can hope to hold duncan to. he only put up 18 in the second game, and though he put up 25 in game 1, that was thanks to hitting 9 free throws in 19 attempts. again, not nothing, but certainly what you would have to consider containment against arguably the best player of his generation. the key for the cavs against duncan is basically keeping things mixed up. Z has shown an ability to create issues for duncan with his size and varejao's strength and energy have caused frustration for everyone he has faced. add in the fact that you have gooden (who is also a decent defender) to mix in PLUS the ability that niv mentioned to double team with over-sized backcourt players, and you have the recipe to slow down duncan. and if he cant hit his free throws, you have the option to use scot pollard for six fouls in a hack-a-duncan approach. not pretty, but winning ugly is still winning.
3) the three point shooters can't kill the cavs. the cavs have been among the best teams in the playoffs at defending the three, but i am sure a lack of arenas and carter thinking he doesn't suck influenced that tremendously. that said, they basically shut down the three point shooting of the pistons, who have a number of guys (prince, billups, rip, sheed) who can knock down the outside shot. the spurs have been on fire in the playoffs, but that can't be expected to continue. finley was a .364 shooter from downtown in the regular season, but is nearly .100 better (.462) in the post-season. bowen is up from .384 to .464. why? well, it might have something to do with "guys stepping up in the clutch" or it might have to do with "denver, phoenix and utah being mediocre defensive teams and the spurs having yet to face a team that can actually shut down an opponent the way the cavs can and have throughout the playoffs." in case you couldn't tell, i think its the latter. as these guys come back to earth (and deal with the talent of the cavs D) it will allow the cavs to collapse inward even more, further closing down lanes for parker and allowing for quicker doubles (and better ball denial) on duncan.
as for when the cavs have the ball...
1) lebron has to be agressive. if he drives to the rim, the spurs can't stop him at all. they can foul him and he will miss free throws, but that's fine. get the spurs in foul trouble if you have to. but drive. every time he can, lebron needs to drive. duncan is a great defender, but he is great at holding his ground, not going up and contesting stuff (he blocks shots, yes, but often does it by waiting for the ball to be released and then going up and getting it). lebrons quickness, strength, body control (HUGE for avoiding charges) and vertical all result in him being able to finish better against duncan than anyone else in the league. the "posterizing" of duncan from back early in the season has been over-hyped, but it is an example of what i am talking about.
2) sasha+gibson+hughes must equal a legit 1.5 players. each game, one of these guys needs to play to his ability and another needs to be a solid contributor. the third can take a nap for all i care. if the cavs get the production out of lebron they need AND 1.5 of these guys steps up, hits shots, and is also agressive going to the rim, the spurs will have to stay at home on defense. that will further open up the lanes for lebron to both drive and pass...and he is deadly doing both.
3) Z and Gooden need to combine for 25-30 and 15-20 every night. if these guys are stroking their jumpers, they can pull the spurs bigs away from the lane and allow james, sasha, hughes and gibson room to maneuver. if not...well...that would be bad for everyone.
4) Marshall or Jones needs to hit a big three or two each game. All it takes is one or two big triples to force the defense to pay attention. Like in point 2, this will open things up.
5) speed things up. it's strange because the cavs need to close things down and open things up simultaneously. the slower the pace of the game, the better, but the cavs are at their offensive best when they move quickly into their sets and make plays happen. don't give the spurs time to help bowen, don't give their defenders time to rotate, don't give them time to change defensive sets. go up floor, get into your set, make a play.
the major x-factor here is mike brown. he's a terrible coach at this point (on the offensive and clock management side of things anyway...he's clearly a defensive genius), but his best coaching jobs of the past two years have been in his 4 games (3-1 overall) against the spurs. i know two games is a small sample size and i know the spurs post february are a different team than the spurs pre-february, but i think that the two cavs wins this year were indicative of one thing: mike brown knows the spurs better than the spurs know the spurs. he designed their defense, he knows their tendencies on offense. if he can gameplan against them well enough to keep his team in the game, lebron is capable of winning. basically, brown needs to find a way to buy his team 43 minutes of even play, and let james be the hero down the stretch. this is what he did in the jan. game (in nov. the cavs controlled from the start, but that is likely due to a bit of a letdown after a game the night before with Dallas). the spurs were up 7 at the half and brown engineered his defense into arguably the ugliest third quarter ever, 11-10, leaving the cavs down 6 headed into the final period. this is probably the best recipe for a cavs win. they need to be within striking distance headed into the 4th. if so, lebron needs to get agressive. the spurs, unlike the pistons, won't allow him to score 29 of 30 (i don't think...although really i have no idea how the pistons were supposed to stop some of those shots), so lebron needs help. in the jan. game, it was hughes who stepped up, sparking a big run to open up a 4th quarter lead before the defense reacted and lebron was able to ice the game. the cavs basically need to find a way to keep it close going into 7 straight 4th quarters...and then they need sasha, gibson or hughes to step up and make shots (marshall or jones COULD fill this role too, but seem less likely). if the cavs can do that, they can actually find a way to steal 4 of these games and bring cleveland its first title in 43 years.